1.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Recommended Reliability Projects less than $50 million
2.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the MIC Expansion Requests
3.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Preliminary Policy Assessment Results for the SCE area
4.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Preliminary Policy Assessment Results for the GLW area
5.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Preliminary Policy Assessment Results for the SDG&E area
6.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Preliminary Policy Assessment Results for the PG&E area
7.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Preliminary Economic Analysis Results
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Viridon Path 15 LLC ("Viridon") submits the following comments on the 2025-2026 Transmission Planning Process (“TPP”) Policy and Economic Preliminary Assessment and Study Updates presented on November 19, 2025 (“November 2025 Preliminary Assessment”), and respectfully requests that the California Independent System Operator (“CAISO”) evaluate the alternative transmission solutions outlined below to address congestion on the Path 15 corridor, which CAISO has identified as a high-priority economic study area.
Viridon is a CAISO Participating Transmission Owner with an economic interest in the Los Banos–Gates #3 500 kV (“LBG3”) line, one of the three 500 kV lines comprising Path 15.
CAISO's preliminary production cost simulations presented on November 19th revealed sharply increasing congestion in the Path 15 corridor. In the 2035 base portfolio, Path 15 is projected to face more than $1.2 billion in annual total congestion. By comparison, Path 26—the next most congested area on the CAISO system—is estimated to incur roughly $350 million in congestion.[1] In the 2040 Base Portfolio, Path 15 congestion burden grows to more than $1.3 billion, while Path 26 is projected to experience ~$370 million in congestion costs.[2] Combined with PG&E's receipt of approximately 10 GW in new data center load applications[3]—nearly doubling from 5.5 GW at year-end 2024[4]—and the concentration of new generation resources in southern California and the Central Valley, California’s primary north-south transmission corridor faces unprecedented strain requiring immediate action.
Viridon has identified a suite of rapidly deployable upgrade options using Grid Enhancing Technologies (“GETs”) that can deliver substantial near-term congestion relief and increased transfer capability. The GETs solutions discussed below can serve as either standalone solutions or building blocks for longer-term transmission reinforcement needs. They can be implemented within existing rights-of-way at a fraction of the cost and timeline of greenfield transmission lines.
Viridon seeks CAISO’s consideration of a comprehensive evaluation of these alternatives alongside long-term solutions identified in the preliminary assessment, recognizing that the urgency of California's reliability needs and climate goals, along with affordability and equity priorities, require both near-term relief and long-term capacity expansion.
PROBLEM STATEMENT: ESCALATING CONGESTION, UNPRECEDENTED LOAD GROWTH & EXPANDING GENERATION PORTFOLIOS ARE INTENSIFYING PRESSURES ON PATH 15
- CAISO’s Path 15 Congestion Projections Show Rapid and Significant Escalation
The 2025-26 TPP preliminary Production Cost Modeling (“PCM”) results reveal accelerating and accentuated congestion on Path 15:
| |
Path 15 Total Congestion Cost ($M)[5]
|
|
2024-25 Transmission Plan
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2025-26 Preliminary Results
|
Year-Over-Year
Change
|
|
10-year Base Portfolio
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$389
|
$1,243
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+220%
|
|
15-year Base Portfolio
|
$522
|
$1,320
|
+153%
|
This escalating congestion on Path 15 is further exacerbating price disparity between northern and southern California transmission customers. Preliminary economic results indicate that the projected Locational Marginal Price (“LMP”) spread between the PG&E Bay Area and the SCE/SDG&E areas would more than double over the next 10 to 15 years relative to the 2024-25 TPP projections.[6]
Additionally, these Path 15 limitations could significantly impact the value the CAISO can deliver through the Extended Day-Ahead Market (“EDAM”). Transfers through California between northern and southern EDAM entities will be limited by congestion on Path 15.
The above results represent significant, tangible economic losses and costs to California ratepayers, which are expected to continue to worsen as load and generation patterns evolve.
- Data Center Development is Driving Concentrated Load Growth in the Bay Area, North of Path 15
PG&E’s service territory is experiencing a substantial and unprecedented increase in projected load growth north of Path 15 in the Bay Area, driven primarily by large data center development. PG&E has received to date a total of 10 GW of new data center load applications—up from 5.5 GW at the end of 2024—which reflects a fundamental shift in California’s future transmission needs. This includes:
- Close to 2 GW of data center load in implementation phase interconnecting to San Jose by 2029
- 8 GW of additional data center load planned to be in study phase by 2031, with half projected to be under study by 2028.
These figures reflect only PG&E’s current load interconnection requests and do not account for other potential data center load projects within northern California municipal utilities, or proposals such as the 700-900 MW data center load connecting by 2030 at the Manning Substation, along Path 15. Large block load additions of this magnitude represent a major change in future grid needs and underscore the urgency of strengthening intra-regional transfer capability to meet these emerging demands.
- Resource Development Patterns Exacerbate Transmission Constraints
The CPUC's IRP portfolios for the 2025-26 TPP demonstrate that congestion is expected to worsen absent targeted transmission upgrades indicated by:
- The majority of new resources being planned south of Los Banos
- The CPUC staff being forced to remap resources to less optimal northern California locations to avoid further Path 15/26 overloads[7]
- Solar resources mapped to the Fresno area showing significant increases, reaching 4.4 GW in the next 10 years vs. 3.6 GW in the previous TPP, and 13.6 GW in the next 15 years, up from 5.8 GW[8]
- CPUC staff’s post-ruling remapping reallocating additional solar and storage to several PG&E substations, including 500 MW of solar and 100 MW of 8-hour battery storage at Manning 230 kV.
Critically, the CPUC's least-cost portfolio for the 2026-27 TPP selects Path 15/26 expansion tranches of up to 5.5 GW by 2045,[9] supporting the economic necessity of upgrading these corridors. Specific CPUC findings reinforce this conclusion:
- The first 1 GW transmission expansion tranche is selected as early as 2036, scaling up to 5.5 GW by 2045 based on load growth projections
- RESOLVE modeling shows upgrades provide 450 GW of added north-to-south flows by 2036, increasing to 3,800 GW by 2045[10]
- The third tranche of Path 15/26 upgrades (>2.5 GW) are triggered in all sensitivity cases except the single case with higher carbon emissions[11]
- CPUC analysis indicates these upgrades are necessary even just to serve PG&E's projected load, until offshore wind is delivering energy into PG&E's service area.[12]
Furthermore, the Darden Clean Energy Project, with 1,150 MW of solar and up to 4,600 MWh of battery storage, is not currently modeled on the Manning – Midway 500 kV line (part of Path 15) in the studied portfolios and could further exacerbate Path 15 congestion issues, underscoring the urgent need to increase the path’s capacity.
In parallel, the areas around the Manning Substation, and the LBG3 line more generally, have some of the most active commercial interest for new renewable resource buildout in the CAISO system. Developing resources in this area and providing deliverability will be critical to meeting long policy and reliability needs.
VIRIDON PATH 15 PROPOSED SOLUTIONS: RAPIDLY DEPLOYABLE & COST-EFFECTIVE
Based on extensive due diligence on upgrade alternatives, Viridon respectfully requests CAISO to evaluate the following grid reinforcement options (“Proposed Solutions”), which can be deployed rapidly:
- Mid-line Series Compensation on LBG3
- LBG3 is currently the only 500?kV line in the Path?15 that lacks series compensation, leaving it under-utilized while the two compensated 500 kV lines in the path carry most of the flow. Installing a mid-line series capacitor will align LBG3’s impedance with the other Path 15 500kV lines and redistribute flows off the congested eastern lines. This allows for a more balanced system and greater overall utilization of the Path 15 corridor
- Compensation improves power flow distribution and increases transfer limits immediately in a highly cost-effective manner
- Implementation is within existing rights-of-way and does not require a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (“CPCN”).[13]
- Reconductoring LBG3 with Advanced Conductors
- Results in increased transfer capability and thermal rating of LBG3 using high-temperature, low-sag advanced conductors[14]
- Thermal ratings could be increased to more than twice their current limits
- Estimated to cost less than half of the cost of a new 500 kV line
- Utilizes existing rights-of-way and structures
- Can be done “live” with minimal outages, based on extensive due diligence conducted with industry-leading engineering and construction consultants.
- Tap into Manning Substation
- Creates a new 500 kV interconnection point along the Los Banos-Gates #3 line connecting from the mid-line series compensation station proposed above into Manning
- Relieves concentration and reliability risk by providing an alternative path for the significant load and generation currently funneling through the Manning substation
- Addresses vulnerability where multiple large-scale projects converge at a single point
- Provides system flexibility and redundancy for both new generation resources and growing data center loads upstream and in the Path 15 region.
- Balances system topology with all three Los Banos–Gates EHV lines having a similar midpoint.
- SmartValve Power Flow Control
- Modular static synchronous series compensator provides dynamic control to optimize economic dispatch, actively minimize congestion costs and improve market efficiency as conditions change throughout the day
- Redirects power off overloaded elements and onto underutilized lines
- Particularly valuable given Path 15's diverse resource mix (solar, wind, hydro, storage)
- Can mitigate subsynchronous resonance issues in series-compensated networks[15]
- Installation can be synergistic with installation of mid-line series compensation.
These Proposed Solutions can be deployed at a significantly lower cost and on a much faster timeline than greenfield transmission projects while providing substantial qualitative and quantitative benefits—whether implemented individually or as a coordinated set of upgrades—as demonstrated in the next section. Moreover, implementing these solutions simultaneously would create efficiencies by leveraging shared engineering, permitting, and construction mobilization, avoiding duplicative outages, and delivering a more versatile upgrade framework that can better accommodate future system needs and evolving load and generation patterns.
QUANTIFIED BENEFITS: ECONOMIC AND TRANSFER CAPABILITY ANALYSES
Comprehensive economic and transfer capability assessments demonstrate that the Proposed Solutions can significantly reduce congestion and price disparity, lower renewable curtailment, increase system throughput, and deliver substantial economic and policy benefits to the CAISO grid.
- Production Cost Modeling Results
Viridon has performed production-cost modeling using Hitachi's Gridview application in accordance with CAISO’s Production Cost Modeling methodology, applying the recently released preliminary 2025-26 TPP cases[16] to the 2035 Base. Viridon evaluated the cumulative impact of a set of proposed solutions and, for additional context, also analyzed their performance when combined with complementary transmission reinforcement south of Path 15 (see scenario B below). This analysis yields the following results in comparison with the Base case:
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These preliminary results are based on Viridon’s combined set of proposed upgrades, i.e, mid-line series compensation, reconductoring and a tap into Manning Substation.[17] In parallel, Viridon is continuing production-cost analyses for each individual proposed solution to further inform CAISO’s evaluation, particularly as the 2025-26 TPP cases continue to be refined.
The scenario with additional potential reinforcement south of Path 15 was included to capture broader system impacts, develop a more comprehensive solution, and illustrates how complementary upgrades can further improve congestion performance across the corridor. The analyzed reinforcement—a new Gates–Midway 500 kV line to the south—was selected primarily because it represents the most influential downstream 500 kV corridor affecting Path 15 flows. Additional reinforcement north of Path 15 was also included in Viridon’s PCM[18] but did not yield further benefits beyond the ones presented above. These more comprehensive scenarios are offered as representative configurations to understand full corridor benefits (beyond Path 15), recognizing that CAISO’s broader system assessment will define the most effective reinforcements to pursue.
- Value of Quicker Congestion Relief
Implementing series compensation on LGB3, reconductoring the line with advanced conductors, and tying into Manning offers a near-term, high-value opportunity to address Path 15 congestion far sooner than any greenfield alternative. Reconductoring and series compensation can be deployed at least five years faster than a new 500 kV transmission line, allowing the system to tackle escalating congestion on an accelerated timeline and avoiding prolonged economic impacts. By delivering meaningful transfer capacity increases well ahead of long-lead time greenfield projects, these enhancements provide earlier and more substantial congestion relief. Preliminary analysis indicates that advancing this congestion relief by five years could yield approximately $2.7 billion in total savings[19] to California ratepayers, reflecting reduced congestion costs, lower curtailment, and improved system efficiency during the period before a new greenfield line could come online.
- Transfer Capability Benefits
Viridon conducted transfer capability analyses to assess how its proposed upgrades would affect power flow across the Path 15 corridor, both on LBG3 specifically and on Path 15 as a whole when combined with complementary system reinforcements.
Viridon’s transfer capability results[20] show:
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Flow on LBG3 would increase substantially with reconductoring and 70% series compensation: by over 110% in the south-to-north direction and approximately 120% in the north-to-south direction.
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When combined with complementary reinforcements north and south of Path 15—an additional Gates–Midway 500 kV line and an additional Los Banos–Tracy 500 kV line—Viridon's proposed LBG3 upgrades (reconductoring, 70% series compensation, and Manning tie) would increase Path 15's total south-to-north transfer capability, as defined in the WECC Path Rating Catalog, by ~1,000 MW under both winter and summer ratings.
- Capital Cost Savings Analysis
Viridon performed analysis of the potential benefits of enhancing the capacity of the Path 15 and 26 corridors using the CPUC's RESOLVE tool. RESOLVE assesses the least-cost buildout of generating and storage resources, as well as major transmission upgrades necessary for meeting California’s carbon and reliability goals. The RESOLVE analysis showed:
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Without Path 15/26 upgrades, California would pay nearly $3 billion more to reliably serve load and meet carbon goals[21]
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Similarly, absent Path 15/26 upgrades, systemwide curtailments across PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E services areas are estimated to be 15% higher[22]
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An upgrade solution deployable by 2030 (comparable to Viridon's fastest option) is chosen by the CPUC’s RESOLVE model in its earliest available year and is estimated to save California ratepayers over $900 million in the net present value of resource buildout costs.[23]
These capital buildout savings are in addition to the congestion and curtailment benefits identified above.
Viridon’s proposed solutions offer a highly cost-effective and rapidly implementable pathway to relieving the severe congestion on Path 15 and integrating needed renewable generation to meet increasing load. By leveraging targeted, in-corridor upgrades that can be deployed within existing rights-of-way, these alternatives deliver meaningful reductions in congestion and improved power flow distribution on timelines far shorter than new greenfield transmission projects and at a much lower cost to California ratepayers. Notably, preliminary analysis shows that these upgrades, coupled with downstream upgrade, can yield congestion-relief benefits comparable to those of significantly larger and substantially more expensive greenfield solutions, such as a new Whirlwind–Tesla HVDC line, and on a much faster timeline.[24] As a result, Viridon’s portfolio provides a practical, near-term means to address urgent system needs while complementing longer-term transmission expansion.
RECOMMENDATIONS TO CAISO
- Conduct Comprehensive Evaluation of Viridon Path 15 Alternatives
We respectfully request that CAISO's policy and economic assessment explicitly evaluate Viridon's proposed upgrade options. While each of the proposed upgrades can be assessed individually, evaluating them in isolation understates their full potential. These measures are complementary, and implementing them as a coordinated solution set unlocks significant engineering, permitting and construction efficiencies, while minimizing duplicative outages, and improving overall system performance along the Path 15 corridor. The combined solution set also offers greater versatility to accommodate future load growth and generation shifts. For these reasons, a comprehensive assessment—considering both individual upgrades and the integrated set—is essential to identifying the most cost-effective and timely congestion-relief.
The evaluation should consider:
- Reduction in Path 15 total congestion cost
- Reduction in LMP spread between northern and southern California
- Reduction in renewable curtailment
- Policy support for IRP renewable and storage buildout necessary to meeting California’s carbon and reliability goals
- Implementation timeline advantages, including faster congestion relief compared to greenfield solutions
- Cost-effectiveness
- Flexibility to integrate with broader solutions CAISO may be considering for the broader north-south corridor.
- Prioritize Solutions Based on Exceptional Congestion Costs
Given the projected $1.2 billion annual congestion cost on Path 15, assuming the 2035 Base portfolio, CAISO should prioritize solutions that can materially increase transfer capability and address congestion on expedited timelines. The benefit-cost analysis should give greater weight to the value of early implementation.
- Coordinate with CPUC Portfolio Findings
CPUC's least-cost analysis, as part of the ongoing development of the portfolio for the 2026-27 TPP, selects Path 15/26 expansion, with benefits including:
- 450 GWh of added north-to-south flows and 7,450 GWh of added south-to-north flows by 2036[25]
- Up to 3,700 GWh of added north-to-south flows and 22,000 GWhs of added south-to-north flows by 2045[26]
- Mitigation of congestion in both directions[27]
- Support for California's carbon reduction goals.
CONCLUSION
Viridon appreciates the opportunity to provide these comments and stands ready to work collaboratively with CAISO to identify solutions that can provide near-term congestion relief while supporting unprecedented load growth and California's long-term transmission needs. We respectfully request that CAISO:
- Explicitly evaluate Viridon's proposed alternatives in the 2025-26 TPP
- Compare these solutions against longer-term projects on a benefit-cost basis
- Recognize the unique value of solutions deployable faster than greenfield projects
- Consider how near-term upgrades can complement and accelerate benefits of long-term projects.
Viridon’s analysis demonstrates that these cost-effective upgrade solutions offer significant capital and grid operating cost savings, with benefits measurable in the hundreds of millions to billions of dollars annually. Beyond congestion cost savings, Viridon's proposed upgrades can materially increase Path 15 transfer capability, particularly when deployed as part of a coordinated set of corridor reinforcements.
The exceptional congestion levels on Path 15, combined with unprecedented load growth and resource development patterns, demand immediate action. Viridon's solutions offer a path forward that is technically feasible, economically beneficial, and rapidly deployable.
[1] Page 198 of the 2025-2026 Transmission Planning Process Policy and Economic Preliminary Assessment and Study Updates - Nov 19, 2025.
[2] Id at 203.
[3] Page 2 of PG&E’s 2025 Request Window Proposals presentation – September 25, 2025.
[4] Page 9 of PG&E’s 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings presentation – February 13, 2025.
[5] November 2025 Preliminary Assessment, p. 198 and 203; and CAISO 2024-2025 Transmission Planning Process (“TPP”) Policy and Economic Preliminary Assessment and Study Updates presented on November 13, 2024, p. 26 and p. 43.
[6] Viridon conducted PCM using Hitachi's Gridview simulation tool. The LMP spread between PG&E Bay Area and the SCE Area is projected to be ~$17/MWh (annual average) in 2039 based on Viridon’s PCM using the 2024-25 TPP economic case. The LMP spread for the 2035 Base Portfolio is measured to be ~$50/MWh based on Viridon’s preliminary PCM using the 2025-26 TPP preliminary case.
[7] Feb 20, 2025 Decision p. 60 and Final Compact -Dashboard_25-26TPP_BaseCaseD_2025-02-20 (See for example workbook sheet “Summary_byRESOLVE_area” showing significantly increased solar mapping to southern PGAE relative to RESOLVE optimized build, and see sheet “2035_Criteria_Alignment” indicating for example, that SCE northern solar resources and East of Pisgah Mohave solar resources were “Shifted to North of Path 26 for improve reliability…”)
[8] See CPUC Final Compact-Dashboard_25-26TPP_BaseCaseD_2025-02-20, sheet “PreviousTPP_Summary_byArea” for the 2025-26 TPP Portfolio
[9] Page 105 of the IRP Workshop for 2025 Inputs and Assumptions presentation – February 27, 2025.
[10] CPUC Base Case Results Viewer spread sheet posted October 2025, Transmission sheet, showing forward and reverse flows on the various tranches of upgrades defined by the CPUC.
[11] From CPUC-issued RESOLVE Results Viewers, Transmission sheet showing selected tranches and timing.
[12] CPUC staff response to question during November 12, 2025 IRP Webinar on the Proposed 2026-27 Transmission Planning Process Portfolios and Preliminary Busbar Mapping Results, p. 4.
[13] Per GO 131-E, “installing new mid-line series capacitors on a transmission or power line to support an increase in the power transfer capability” is categorized as an “upgrade” and does not require a CPCN: “An extension, expansion, upgrade, or other modification to an electric public utility’s existing electrical transmission facilities, including electric transmission lines, substations, and switchyards within existing transmission easements, rights of way, or franchise agreements, irrespective of whether the electrical transmission facility is above a 200 kV voltage level”.
[14] Upgrades to PG&E’s end terminals would also be required.
[15] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ paper “SSR Implication Assessment Using Modular FACTS”: SSR Implication Assessment Using Modular FACTS | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore
[16] 00_CAISO_PreliminaryPCM_BasePortfolio_2035_NovSH case from the Economic Planning Study materials posted November?24,?2025; Viridon refined a single N-2 contingency definition to accurately capture binding constraints along the Path 15 corridor. CAISO has indicated these preliminary cases will continue to be updated through the planning cycle.
[17] The SmartValve power flow control solution is not directly included in the analysis because the modeling methodology still needs validation in Gridview. Viridon stands ready to support CAISO’s assessment of this technology in collaboration with the technology provider.
[18] Studied a new Los Banos – Tracy 500 kV line incrementally to the LBG3 upgrades and new Gates – Midway.
[19] Based on 2035 Base portfolio preliminary PCM results shown in the previous section for solution A, 45% multiplied by $1.2 billion in annual total congestion cost reduction multiplied by 5 years.
[20] Based on the CAISO 2025-26 TPP 2040 Winter Peak PG&E Bulk reliability case and 2040 Summer Peak case, without double-line outages. Each run compares a pre-project baseline to a post-upgrade scenario.
[21] Viridon conducted a RESOLVE simulation using the proposed RESOLVE base case and removing RESOLVE’s ability to trigger the Path15/26 upgrades, and compared the NPV of Total Resource Costs from the CPUC’s Results viewer Dashboard sheet using the CPUC-proposed Delayed Off-Shore Wind Base Case Scenario with that of a comparable RESOLVE run but with the Path 15/26 upgrades disabled. The NPV of Total Resource Costs without the ability to upgrade Paths 15 and 26 was $2.895 billion than the case in which the upgrades were enabled and triggered by RESOLVE.
[22] Id., Curtailment results from RESOLVE’s Results Viewer Generation & Loads sheets, row 121 for each respective cases.
[23] Viridon conducted a RESOLVE simulation using the proposed RESOLVE base case and a modified base case wherein the first tranche of Path 15/26 upgrades was made available starting in 2030 and at a cost of approximately two times the estimated cost of Viridon’s most quickly deployable LBG3 upgrade solution. (Twice the cost was used in recognition that the tranche also represents an upgrade to Path 26, and Viridon roughly assumed twice the cost to include comparable upgrades to Path 26). The NPV of Total Resource Costs between the RESOLVE base case simulation and the revised tranche 1 case was $927 million as indicated by comparing Resource NPVs from respective Results Viewer Dashboard sheets, and the revised tranche 1 case Results Viewer Transmission sheet shows a selection of the modified tranche 1 in the first run year in which the upgrade is made available.
[24] Based on Viridon’s PCM with 24-25 TPP cases.
[25] CPUC Base Case Results Viewer spread sheet posted October 2025, Transmission sheet, showing forward and reverse flows on the various tranches of upgrades defined by the CPUC.
[26] [26] Id.
[27] In accordance with the increased bi-directional flows and as indicated by the reduced curtailment referenced in Section 3 of the Quantified Benefits presented above.
8.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the Testing Results of Congestion Revenue Allocation
9.
Please provide any additional comments on the November 19, 2025 Transmission Planning Process Stakeholder Meeting